Myanmar and the Way of Nations

Twice in as many weeks unprecedented natural disasters have struck little-known parts of Asia. On May 3, Cyclone Nargis Blasted across the Bay of Bengal and launched headlong into Myanmar (formerly Burma), devastating the Irawaddy Peninsula and destroying 75% of the manmade structures in 5 provinces, including the principle city of Yangon (formerly Rangoon), this according to sources inside the military government. United Nations estimates are that the death toll is as much as 100,000 and millions remain homeless.

Compounding the problem, Myanmar’s military junta government, nearly as xenophobic as N. Korea, has maintained a strict policy of turning away foreign visitors in order to control the population and assuage the possibility of revolution in this often unstable part of South East Asia.

Then on May 12, an earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter Scale rocked the Eastern part of Sichuan Province, China destroying buildings and trapping thousands inside the rubble. Latest estimates are that over 37,000 people have perished in the aftermath of the violent quake, and more than 2 million are left homeless. Four days after the temblor struck, Chinese military troops were only beginning to arrive in many of the hardest hit villages and townships.

A stark contrast marks the two disasters, however. China’s Communist government, making a play on the world stage this year for the first time, with the Beijing Olympics, understands it is their responsibility to save as many lives as they possibly can and accept aid from whatever quarter it might arrive. Myanmar’s military junta, on the other hand, holds no such ethic. While tons of aid and millions of dollars have flowed into and been promised for the comparatively smaller Chinese disaster (death-toll estimates of about 37,000 so far), a French freighter, bearing over 1,000 tons of rice and emergency medical supplies was turned away from the port at Yangon, with protests that France had sent a warship, ostensibly to take advantage of Myanmar’s weak state. Initial aid, sent to Yangon the day after the disaster, reportedly didn’t reach the needy areas for nearly 48 hours, and then only after the military had removed protein bars and other “contraband”. Reuters reported on May 17 a helicopter flyover by the government delivering emergency aid to a suburb of Yangon dropped 4 cases of noodles and flew away. API reported on May 19 an incident in which a government helicopter flew over a coastal village and shot and killed 6 villagers who were in the countryside among nearly 100 people attempting to retrieve the bodies of family members because it “appeared they might riot.”

China’s delay in getting troops to the affected area and criticism in the international community has produced press conferences, with the state media machine working hard to appease public worries. State media outlets are filled with news of mobilizing emergency response teams, and of Premier Wen Jiabao’s journey toward Chengdu to inspect the damage in person. “We are moving as fast as possible to meet the need,” reported one state radio message. The underlying message, that governments demonstrate their credentials when they move to ease suffering, is based in the Western Judeo-Christian tradition and commands little history in the Asian sphere of geopolitics. That China is responding to it is a good sign of their desire to be seen as a “legitimate” government who cares for their people.

Conversely, sharp criticism has been lodged against the government of Myanmar for withholding aid from its people by U.N. member nations, and the French ambassador to the U.N. warned on May 12 that the government’s refusal to allow aid to be delivered to people in need or in danger “could lead to a true crime against humanity.”

Undaunted by these criticisms, however, the foreign ministry of Myanmar repeated that the country does not yet need foreign search-and-rescue teams to deal with the impact of the cyclone. The ministry further stated that it is prepared to accept only emergency relief provisions, and then only if the military regime is allowed to handle distribution within the country.

The junta is maintaining tight control over what foreign aid or presence is allowed into the country – so far, only 11 pre-approved charter flights have been permitted. The regime says it will confiscate any supplies that come in without its authorization.

Much like the riots that erupted across Myanmar in September 2007, the fallout from Nargis will not topple the regime, nor force it to open its doors to the United States or other foreign influence. Myanmar’s rejection of the message that legitimacy as a government comes from caring for people in your charge is characteristic of their approach throughout their rule. They are a military first and a government second. One might think that, in today’s climate, such an abusive and arbitrary rule might not stand. However, several factors are important in understanding why this disaster and the government’s unwillingness to deal with it will not cause their demise.

An Insular Capital in the North

First, the government, no longer physically based in Yangon, where the damage was worst, has escaped any direct impact from the cyclone. The capital was moved in 2006 from Yangon to Naypyidaw, 300 miles to the north. Thus, the regime is insulated both from the physical destruction brought on by the storm and from any social unrest that might ensue as conditions worsen.

Insignificance in the West

Second, Myanmar is too geopolitically insignificant to the United States for Washington to divert attention or resources away from other more urgent geopolitical priorities. In the so-called “axis of evil” countries – Iran, North Korea and Iraq – Washington has committed notable resources and creativity at times: a North Korea deal is almost sealed, bilateral dialogue continues to evolve between Iran and the United States, and Iraq remains semi-occupied. Meanwhile, the Bush administration has described Myanmar – along with Belarus, Cuba and Zimbabwe – as an “outpost of tyranny,” but has displayed little real action to match its rhetoric. The violent 2007 military crackdown against Burmese monks, the recent election intimidation in Zimbabwe, the diplomatic spats between Belarus and the U.S. Embassy in Minsk, and Cuba’s continued anti-U.S. stance have received much U.S. media attention, but little government action. These second-tier “axis of almost evil” countries do not represent core strategic priorities for the United States at the moment, so Washington will not get deeply involved in their issues. The same will be true for other Western democracies.

Dangerous Significance in the East and South

Third, Myanmar is too geopolitically important to China, Thailand and India for these key Asian players to intervene. For a regime change to occur in Myanmar one or more of these countries would need to be on board – but none of these governments wants to see the country destabilized politically. Both China and India have energy interests there, and all three countries have other, more-pressing internal stability issues to deal with. Indeed, all three prefer to see a strong regime in Myanmar that can contain the flow of militant traffic, drugs and refugees, leaving them free to deal with their own difficulties.

Where governments and even the United Nations are restricted, though, more neutral groups, Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), which were already working in the area to fight poverty and disease, are acceptable to the military authorities. Most notably among the organizations already accepted and registered in Myanmar, New Mission Systems International has gained unprecedented entrance and is on the ground delivering food and medical aid where it is needed most. The problem here, however is getting the food, medicine and other supplies to deliver. NMSI’s Executive Vice President, J.D. Whitney, currently stationed in Fort Myers, Florida is making an appeal for financial gifts and grants in aid to meet the crisis in Myanmar, and funds are trickling in. However much more will be needed before the Myanmar government allows any other help from outside.

Over the weekend, NMSI missionaries delivered much needed rice and water supplies to survivors of the cyclone in the Irrawaddy Delta region and Yangon. This points out the effectiveness of smaller, more targeted efforts to meet human need in times of crisis. Governmental organizations only go so far, and their help is always met with suspicion. Where governments must follow official channels and are often subject to their own paranoia, organizations like NMSI can produce quick results and can also handle big challenges. The dilemma is striking, though. Those who have all the money in the world cannot get help in because of the government’s mistrust of them. And those who have earned the government’s trust by demonstrating that they are only there to serve and help meet with difficulty obtaining funds.

For those genuinely interested in helping people in the world, the lesson is clear. In meeting the needs of the oppressed who are suffering, those attempting to be a small point of light in the midst of darkness wield greater power than those who follow the way of nations.