Barack Obama/White Sox Baseball Card 2006
It has been, to say the least, a remarkable week, and the conclusion to a most remarkable, most engaging political campaign, perhaps the longest one in American history. Many things can be said about this campaign, and I won’t use time or space here for “sour grapes” statements. Several things have happened that demand our attention, I’d like you to note the following remarks:
- Looking back at previous elections I can recall a time not too long ago when one of the major concerns for both parties was the malaise and lack of voter turnout. Pundits pinned their prediction to the possibilities of low turnout favoring one candidate and high turnout favoring the other. In this election, though, more voters turned out from every conceivable sector of our population than ever before, far exceeding the expectations of even the most optimistic pundits. America spoke and she spoke loudly.
- I can recall a time not too long ago, when the general talk among ordinary people was of the ilk that it “didn’t really matter who we vote for because the candidates are really both the same.“ I never really believed that then, but I must say, I haven’t even heard a hint of that kind of talk this time. Everyone knew what the issues were, everyone was engaged, everyone voted. And for whatever reason they voted, whether it was an honest appreciation of Mr. Obama’s stated policies and plans for the country; or a personality contest in which Mr. Obama simply looked so much better than his opponent or even a race-based decision, the lowest common denominator; America spoke and Barack Obama was elected president of the United States on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008.
- Despite the nightmare scenarios of “hanging chad” situations in Ohio and Virginia, and apart from the retaining, by both parties, of literally tens of thousands of lawyers, put in place and made ready for litigation in the case of a close count, or even worse, a tie, one thing stands congratulatory above all else. As the world watched and marveled, the American system again participated in, and presided over an orderly and smooth transition of authority and power. And that, my friends, is a truly unusual thing. Think of the nations where such a transition cannot possibly occur, and you will catalog the hot-spots and oppressive regimes all around the world. Think of the few nations in which such a transition is a possibility and you will list a small group of nations who stand stable alongside us, even if in disagreement over politics and policies.
The popular vote gave Mr. Obama a solid majority, but nowhere near a landslide. His electoral majority was decisive. Most significantly, the Democrats now control both houses of Congress and in the Senate are close to – but not quite at – a filibuster-proof majority. They decisively control two branches of government. Indeed, it is likely that they will be able to appoint one or even two justices to the Supreme Court in the next four years, controlling that as well. We must not let the importance of this one fact escape us: Mr. Obama will have more political power, more control over the strategic and tactical direction of the federal government on his first day in office than most presidents ever achieve.
The crucial question will be whether it makes a difference. I have long thought that the presidency, although more powerful than just about any position on Earth, is still subject to the whims and wiles of many other factors worldwide. This is particularly true in the case of foreign policy. Mr. Obama is about to learn that ideology and personalities are of secondary importance to the external forces that limit, shape and constrain the American president’s options.
The change between the government of the United States elected in 2004 and the government that will take power in January, 2009 is as dramatic a shift in personalities and ideologies as has ever occurred in the American system. The issue will be how much wiggle-room Mr. Obama will actually have, particularly in foreign policy.
Consider: President-elect Obama has pledged to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, although his time frame is unclear. If he does withdraw them, he will have to deal with Iranians sooner rather than later, as they will want to move into any power vacuum left in Iraq. If the Iraqi government is unable to govern, or parts of it are under Iranian influence, obviously Iranian influence in Iraq will surge. This of course will deeply concern Saudi Arabia, which has been frightened of Iranian power since the Iranian revolution. Like it or not, Saudi Arabia still controls OPEC and, going in, much of the oil needed to run this country.
Mr. Obama will face the choice of either leaving the Saudis to their own devices or containing the Iranians. The strategy he has said he would follow would be to negotiate with the Iranians. He would have to reach an understanding with them that would create a neutral Iraqi government and allow the United States to withdraw, yet have a credible guarantee from Iran to respect Iraqi neutrality and keep it as a buffer zone. What can the United States offer Iran that matches the importance of Iraq to them?
That will be the point at which President Obama will first show whether he can carve a new path or whether he will be trapped in the same reality the Bush administration has faced, lo these past five years. Unless he can reach an understanding with the Iranians, he cannot simply withdraw. I cannot imagine an offer to Iran that would cause Tehran to give up the goal of the domination of Iraq. But that is the laboratory experiment: Can Mr. Obama craft a solution that others can’t see? If he can, then his withdrawal plan can be executed. If he can’t, then it can only be executed at a huge political cost prior to the next presidential election – and popularity among presidents is fleeting, as we have seen. Mr. Obama has won the presidency and therefore has shown himself to be a master politician. He does not want to create a disaster and lose the next election. Therefore, the question is: What will he do to fulfill the centerpiece pledge of his foreign policy?
What is important here is that Mr. Obama, having won the election, will now have to face a range of foreign policy issues that will challenge his ideology and policies, and where his personality will matter little. He will be dealing with people like Vladimir Putin, Hu Jintao and Angela Merkel, none of whom are swayed by charisma and all of whom govern countries with interests very different than those of the United States.
When policies encounter realities, harsh things happen to presidents. Most presidents are worn down by them. Some accommodate themselves. A few – a Lincoln or an FDR – find opportunities that no one else can quite see. The first test for Obama will be Iraq, to find an exit that isn’t disastrous but fulfills his commitments. Reality shock sets in.
